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OPEC+ members remain committed to keeping output quotas unchanged until the end of this year, with the group expected to gradually take back market share over time as non-OPEC sources of supply run out of steam.
EU member states agreed to continue cutting their gas demand by 15% compared to the five-year average until Mar. 31, 2024. The emergency legislation started applying in August 2022 to help the bloc refill its gas stocks and mitigate its unprecedented gas shortage following the Russian pipeline supply cuts.
The Netherlands’ plans to boost its LNG import capacity by a quarter to 30 bn m3 a year by 2026 could allow the country to fully replace the 9 bn m3 of Russian gas it imported prior to Russia’s export cuts to the EU. Like several other EU countries, the Netherlands is turning to LNG to help ensure its security of gas supply while also implementing measures to cut gas demand in the short and long term.
The normalisation of diplomatic relations between the two Middle Eastern powerhouses is a bearish event for flat prices. The main impact is going to be seen in the Yemen war, removing some risk premium due to higher costs of insuring Saudi oil cargoes and its onshore infrastructure’s exposition to attacks. In the long run, the deal could also result in more production from Iran and Yemen. Finally, it is an essential foreign policy success for China but is yet to mark the beginning of a new era.
We have repeatedly called for a sustained opening of the transatlantic gasoline arbitrage in order to help ease the tightness seen in the US market. But is our freight-adjusted arb incentive the best measure to look at? By re-calculating the direct blending of ethanol into margins and arb estimates for a refiner producing and distributing E10, we find that not only are there gains to be made in terms of profitability but also that arbitrage conditions are already much more favorable than those for regular gasoline.
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