TMX crude exports decline for third straight month on supply tightness

Canadian crude exports from the TMX pipeline fell to 407 kbd in June, pressured by wildfire-related supply disruptions, seasonal maintenance, and stronger Midwest and Gulf Coast pull.

Canadian crude oil exports from the Westridge Terminal in Vancouver declined for a third consecutive month in June, amid peak seasonal maintenance and wildfire-related production disruptions that began in late May.

Kpler cargo tracking data show that Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) exports are expected to average around 407 kbd in June, down 10.5% from May’s 455 kbd and 23.5% below the record 532 kbd exported in March. The pipeline’s expansion capacity is 590 kbd. Approximately 91% of June cargoes have declared destinations, with 46% bound for China, 26% for the U.S. West Coast, 14.3% for South Korea, and 4.5% for Singapore. The remaining 9.2% are yet to be confirmed, pending vessel destination declarations.

Alberta oil sands production typically undergoes peak maintenance in May and June, while wildfires in late May led to temporary shut-ins, though most output has since recovered. Kpler inventory data show Western Canadian trackable crude volumes dropped to 18.9 million barrels in mid-June, before rebounding to 21.6 million barrels this week.

Beyond upstream disruptions, strong inland U.S. demand—particularly from the Midwest and Gulf Coast—may have further reduced TMX export availability. While the U.S. West Coast continues to receive Canadian barrels via TMX, the Midwest (which had all-time high runs this week) and USGC compete for the same crude pool via Enbridge’s Mainline system and TC Energy's Keystone system. After two months of accepting all nominated volumes, Enbridge Mainline was apportioned 4% in June, with further apportionment expected in July, according to market participants and Argus Media. Meanwhile, the loss of Venezuelan heavy crude on the Gulf Coast has led refiners to increasingly turn to alternatives, such as Western Canadian crude.

Vancouver monthly crude oil exports in kbd, split by destination countries

Western Canada daily trackable crude oil inventories in million barrels

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