Nigeria's Dangote success story could be replicated in East Africa

While Dangote’s gasoline and diesel barrels are mainly consumed in Nigeria and WAF countries, more than 50% of jet output is heading to Europe, a share that is likely to increase as summer demand season approaches. In the meantime, plans around building a second Dangote refinery are gaining momentum - this time in Tanzania or Kenya.

Market and Trading calls:

• Further decrease expected in Nigeria’s gasoline imports, as Dangote’s product output crowds out European barrels in Africa.
• Stable on Dangote’s gasoline and jet output, which we estimate at 280-290 kbd of gasoline and 160-170 kbd for jet.
• Future product output from the proposed $17 billion Dangote refinery in East Africa could supply barrels to Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, DRC, etc.

Gasoline imports into Nigeria have fallen to record lows of 30 kbd in April and continue to trend at suppressed levels through the first half of May — a clear reflection of the successful Dangote ramp-up. We estimate refinery runs at Dangote reached a high of around 640 kbd in April, with throughput continuing at effective maximum capacity into May. This ramp-up has been underpinned by the resolution of technical issues at the RFCC and CDU (both units underwent maintenance in January/February), as well as the refinery's role in supplying marginal barrels amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. In particular, Dangote has optimised operations by shifting its hydrocracker toward jet-max mode amid strong middle distillate margins.

Gasoline imports into Nigeria, kbd

Source: Kpler

Improved unit reliability and optimisation have also enabled Dangote to operate in maximum jet and maximum gasoline modes. We estimate current output at 280–290 kbd of gasoline, 120–130 kbd of gasoil/diesel, and 160–170 kbd of jet, with these elevated volumes expected to hold steady through the remainder of 2026.

Dangote refinery supply outlook of major refined products, kbd

Source: Kpler

The ramp-up has driven Dangote's refined product exports to surge to 510 kbd in April, with similarly strong levels so far in May, led by gasoline and jet. While gasoline is predominantly consumed domestically — in line with Nigeria's demand of around 330 kbd — April also saw gasoline-laden vessels depart for Ghana, Cameroon, Angola, and Singapore. Gasoil/diesel was likewise directed primarily toward Nigeria and other West African countries, with volumes flowing to Cameroon and Côte d'Ivoire last month. Most notably, jet departures to Europe surged in April, with cargoes heading to Spain, France, Italy, the UK, and Turkey. The first-ever jet cargo from Dangote is expected to arrive in Rotterdam tomorrow, and predictive ship-tracking data points to further departures to the region this month. Looking ahead, we expect jet exports to Europe to increase, as European jet balances tighten significantly between May-August and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to constrain critical middle distillate supplies to the region.

‍