TTF to hold steady while Asian prices face bearish pressure on weak demand

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Neutral as the rise in temperatures in most of the continent and improved renewable generation are expected to offset declines in net pipeline flows due to the start of the spring maintenance period in Norway. Ongoing maintenance at key European terminals will likely limit the pace of LNG imports in the next few days.

Asian LNG price outlook: Slightly bearish as mild weather, high inventories, and weak demand—particularly from China and Thailand—offset supply disruptions from Ichthys and Wheatstone, with Bintulu’s recovery easing upward pressure.

Asian LNG – TTF spread: Slightly widening as the TTF is expected to remain stable, and Asian LNG prices are projected to weaken slightly in the coming days. As of 23 April, Asian LNG premium over TTF widened by $0.12/MMBtu week-on-week, trading at a $0.23/MMBtu premium.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Neutral as heating demand drops below 15 Bcf/d and temperatures remain cool enough to ward off the start of the cooling season in most of the US.

Key natural gas and LNG prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Spark Commodities. Brent-indexed price represents 12% slope of 90-day moving average of Brent contract. Netforward USGC to NWE calculation is 115% Henry Hub contract plus shipping and regasification costs into Gate (Spark Commodities).

Asian LNG-TTF spread ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, Kpler Insight

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