China 2026 power and fossil fuel outlook
China’s energy demand growth eased in 2025 as economic activity and industrial output slowed. As one of the world’s largest power systems, even small changes in demand or supply fundamentals can trigger disproportionate moves in global coal and gas markets as power demand growth reaccelerates in 2026.
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Coal demand to rebound while upside for gas remains limited
In 2026, China’s power demand growth is expected to pick up pace after the 2025 slowdown, supported by rising residential consumption, AI-related load, data centre expansion, and increasing EV penetration, lifting total power demand to around 11,000 TWh.
This whitepaper outlines how stronger electricity consumption supports a recovery in coal demand after the 2025 contraction, while continued renewable expansion limits upside for gas-fired generation, and assesses the implications for coal, LNG, and global energy markets using Kpler Insight data.
Key takeaways
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