Value of crude, product, LNG and LPG trapped in the Mideast Gulf rises to $20bn

This article estimates the market value of liquids currently stranded in the Mideast Gulf.

Over the past two weeks, markets have swung between hopes of a US-backed reopening of Hormuz and renewed military escalation. Yet the key indicator, actual Mideast Gulf (MEG) exports via Hormuz, remains near a trickle . Total liquids exports via Hormuz fell from around 20 mbd pre-conflict to roughly 1 mbd in April, forcing global markets to rebalance through supply losses, refinery run cuts, and demand destruction.

Persistently subdued outflows, combined with rising MEG commodities-on-water (COW) volumes since late April, pushed the value of crude, CPP, DPP, LNG, LPG, and ammonia stranded inside the Gulf to around $19.9bn (see Methodology).

Chart 1: Mideast Gulf - Commodities-on-Water (excluding containers) [kt]

Source: Kpler

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