What the Strait of Hormuz’s fragile recovery signal means for oil flows and prices

Vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz briefly rebounded on 28–29 July, a positive signal after weeks of decline, but the move failed to hold on 30 July and any broader recovery remains uncertain. Oil prices continue to trade on geopolitical headlines, rather than actual flows data.

Crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell from a post-MOU, pre-July escalation baseline of roughly 33 commodity-related transits per day on a 10-day moving average basis to as low as 4 a day after renewed Iranian strikes on commercial vessels beginning 7 July. However, over the last 48 hours, a Qatari LNG carrier exited the Gulf for the first time in weeks, a positive sign, as transits pick up a bit off the lows from 23 July. Brent crude, meanwhile, has moved on rumour and headline more than on the underlying flow picture since April, and Kpler's current read is a range-bound market with $110 as the upside, contingent on China staying out of the buying.

How Hormuz crossings have actually moved through July 2026

The crossing count tells a more volatile story than the headlines alone suggest. Kpler tracked roughly 33 commodity-related vessels crossing the strait per day between 15 June and 7 July, a period that followed the MOU signing, marking an uptick from an average of 15 transits per day through the first two weeks of June and 9 transits per day in May. That recovery reversed fast: renewed attacks on commercial vessels and US re-escalation on 7 July dragged daily commodity-related transits back below 5 on 22 July when measured over a 10-day moving average basis, albeit daily crossings have shown improvement over the past four days.

Kpler's Dimitris Ampatzidis, covering maritime risk and compliance for the region, put it plainly on the 30 July session: this was "the first time to be, again, optimistic" about the strait, adding that the US Navy has reportedly begun escorting some tankers through the Gulf. The updated crossing data warrants caution, however: the 29 July rebound was followed by a sharp fall on 30 July.

Why oil prices aren't tracking the flow data

Brent has been reacting to negotiation headlines, not to the tracked flow picture, since April. Every de-escalation rumour, including the mid-June MOU between the US and Iran, has triggered a sell-off larger than the actual change in barrels moving through the strait would justify. Kpler's Homayoun Falakshahi frames the current range as $110 as the realistic upside for Brent, with the ceiling holding as long as China stays out of the market as a marginal buyer; Chinese crude imports remain around 7 million barrels a day, still well under the roughly 11 million barrels a day seen before the conflict.

What's rerouting through Bab el-Mandeb and Yanbu instead

Not all of the volume lost from a constrained Hormuz is finding another way out. Total crossings through Bab el-Mandeb have fallen by around 35% since the Houthis announced a targeted blockade against Saudi-linked shipping just under two weeks ago, with only 11 tankers crossing on 27 July against a normal run rate several times higher. Of the roughly 3.2 million barrels a day originally departing south towards the Bab el-Mandeb via Yanbu, 2 to 2.5 million barrels a day will need to reroute northwards towards Egypt once August-loaded cargoes are committed. 

What to watch next

Three things worth tracking as this plays out: whether the current uptick in Hormuz crossings holds for more than a few days rather than reversing like the mid-June recovery did, whether Aramco's upcoming official selling price announcement shifts more Saudi crude toward Europe and pulls more Atlantic Basin barrels toward Asia in response, and whether Chinese import volumes move off their current ~7 million barrel-a-day plateau. Kpler's Markets in Motion briefings track vessel-level crossing data through the strait weekly, alongside the price and flow read across crude, LNG, and freight, so a genuine turn should show up in the tracked data before it shows up as a headline.

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