China’s iron ore and coal imports hold firm while corn arrivals hit a 5-year low

Iron Ore & Steel: Iron ore prices hover around the $100/t mark

• Global seaborne iron ore exports finished at 30.14 Mt in the week commencing 11 November, down from a six-week high of 32.54 Mt in the previous week. The drop was largely attributed to multi-week low shipments from Rio Tinto and BHP in Western Australia. In contrast, South African exports climbed to a five-week high of 1.02 Mt, reflecting a steady recovery following rail and port maintenance in mid-October.
• In China, iron ore imports climbed to a five-week high of 27.04 Mt last week, well above the previous five-year average of 24.21 Mt. Strong inflows so far in November could potentially push the monthly imports to a multi-year high, even though crude steel production in the month is expected to stabilise or decline slightly from October’s 81.88 Mt (+6.24% m/m, +3.53% y/y). Steel mills ramped up production in October on the back of improved profitability and nine-year high export volumes.
• Iron ore prices closed stable w/w as of 20 November, with the most traded contract on SGX and DCE rising by 0.46% w/w and 1.57% w/w to $101.03/t and 774 yuan/t ($106.82/t), respectively. Earlier declines on 14 and 15 November were driven by a well-supplied market environment, soft steel demand outlook in winter and little improved property sector data in China. However, prices rebounded as key Chinese cities announced taxes on real estate transactions and traders have reportedly begun restocking for the Chinese New Year holidays in January. We anticipate the SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) benchmark to hover around $100/t ahead of China‘s Central Economic Work Conference in December.