Hormuz flows remain constrained, but signs point to near-term recovery

Market & trading calls

• Crude oil: Israel–Iran tensions and Middle East vessel risks elevate Brent and WTI; robust summer refinery runs tighten sweet crude supply despite OPEC+ easing cuts.
• Refined products: Middle distillates surge on Iranian capacity risks and low ARA stocks; gasoline faces summer oversupply; naphtha sees mild support if Hormuz tension persists.
• Natural gas: US heatwave and Middle East tensions buoy Henry Hub, TTF, and JKM; steady production and strong LNG feedgas demand limit storage injections, tightening balances.
• Metals: Gold and silver stay near highs amid safe-haven flows and low real yields; copper steady with Chinese demand and Middle East iron ore constraints; nickel weakens.
• Agriculture: Soybean oil rallies on stronger biodiesel demand and bullish RFS; wheat climbs on harvest, capped by Black Sea supply; coffee and cocoa soften on ample stocks.