Iran begins exporting crude from Jask, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz

Executive Summary

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Atlantic Basin: The Atlantic Basin has now fully recovered from the impacts of recent hurricanes, however Mexico’s internal woes are pushing multi-month high volumes of crude to the export markets. Meanwhile, Nigeria has switched to an all-Nigerian slate and even its term US WTI barrels are not finding their way to the Dangote refinery.

Europe and FSU: After pressured operations at Libya’s Zawia refinery drove a record high in product imports last month, news emerged this week that the plant has come back online. In the meantime, the resumption of Libyan oil supply has enabled crude exports to rebound from 450 kbd in September to 640 kbd over H1 October, weighing on CPC Blend differentials.

Middle East and Asia: Iran’s oil exports quickly rebounded after a brief slowdown while the first-ever crude load from its Jask terminal, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, marks a significant development. Meanwhile, Iraq has improved its OPEC+ compliance. Light sweet crude differentials will face pressure due to refinery outages in Asia and rising US production.