Iranian oil floating storage hits 4-months high as US sanctions tighten

Market & Trading Calls

Americas:

• Bullish on high-TAN TMX grades versus US-bound pipelines due to lower volumes and competitive freight costs, bearish on low-TAN TMX volumes from February onwards due to PADD 5 spring maintenance.
• Bearish on Maya differentials as Mexican exports hit 7-month high amidst persisting delays in Dos Bocas commissioning, defying plummeting production.
• Bearish on Canadian heavy sours in Houston due to weaker HSFO cracks in the US Gulf Coast, at least until Trump's inauguration which will rekindle discussion of Canada/Mexico tariffs.

Atlantic Basin - Europe and Africa:

• Bearish on North Sea differentials as weakness in European crude demand keeps regional prices pressured, with Forties consistently trading at a discount to Dated Brent.
• Bearish on Johan Sverdrup valuations due to medium sour competition from LatAm, Africa and sharply declining refinery runs in NWE over Q1.
• Bullish on differentials of Senegal's Sangomar grade amid a robust pull from China.

Middle East - Asia - Russia:

• Bullish on Dubai spreads as improved market sentiment and aggressive buying activity boosted December spreads.
• Bullish on Chinese import dynamics as elevated quotas for private refiners and refinery expansions signal stronger crude flows in 2025.
• Bullish on Iranian oil prices in China as stricter US sanctions constrained shipping capacity.