Sweeping EU sanctions risk destabilising an already-fragile gasoil/diesel market

Sweeping EU sanctions risk throwing the gasoil market into fresh turmoil just as balances begin to normalize. By targeting products refined from Russian-origin crude outside Russia, Brussels is disrupting a vital trade link — with India and Türkiye now scrambling to reroute flows that once bridged up to 20% of EU diesel demand. The near-term outlook is bullish for cracks, especially in the Mediterranean, but ICE Gasoil's muted reaction hints the market is fatigued, and eyeing alternative supply from the US Gulf and Middle East.