US copper tariffs - near-term covered, no self-sufficiency before 2035

US copper demand could potentially be satisfied for most of H2 2025 using the existing inventories built during the massive influx during H1.

• Tariff-driven price surge: The announcement of a 50% U.S. tariff on refined copper imports triggered a spike in Comex prices and widened the Comex-LME spread, reflecting initial market expectations of a lower eventual levy (~25%).
• Short-term import front-loading: Ahead of the expected tariff implementation, U.S. seaborne copper imports surged, particularly from Peru and Chile, with ytd volumes already nearing full-year 2024 levels; inventories may be sufficient to meet most H2 2025 demand.
• Self-sufficiency unlikely before 2035: Long permitting timelines, limited smelting capacity, and rising copper demand from electrification and data centers mean the U.S. cannot become self-sufficient in copper before the next decade—even with major projects like Resolution Mine.