TTF to maintain premium over Asian LNG as European policy uncertainty and supply risks offset weak demand fundamentals

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Neutral as bearish demand fundamentals and strong injections are balanced by ongoing Norwegian maintenance, US LNG outages, and policy-driven uncertainty linked to the EU’s Russian gas phase-out roadmap.

Asian LNG price outlook: Slightly bearish as soft Indian demand, persistent mild weather, and ample inventories erode recent spot LNG price gains, curbing momentum and sidelining opportunistic buyers.

Asian LNG – TTF spread: Slightly narrowing with Asian LNG facing downward pressure and TTF stabilizing after rallying on 6 May. As such, we expect TTF to maintain its premium over Asian LNG prices over the next week. As of 7 May, the Asian LNG price spread to TTF flipped, trading at a $0.09/MMBtu discount.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Steady as expectations of a warm second half of May are offset by multiple triple-digit weekly underground storage injections.

Key natural gas and LNG prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Spark Commodities. Brent-indexed price represents 12% slope of 90-day moving average of Brent contract. Netforward USGC to NWE calculation is 115% Henry Hub contract plus shipping and regasification costs into Gate (Spark Commodities).

Europe: Mixed drivers to keep TTF steady amid Russian phase-out roadmap

TTF front-month prices rose sharply last week, settling at $11.50/MMBtu on 7 May—a 6.7% ($0.72/MMBtu) increase from 30 April. Prices remained broadly stable through most of the trading days before rallying on 6 May, following the EU Commission’s unveiling of its road map to phase out Russian gas. The proposal includes a ban on new contracts and spot deals by end of 2025, with a full phase-out of existing long-term contracts by the end of 2027. While full details are expected in June, the market reacted swiftly to the potential supply-side risks.

Looking ahead, Kpler Insight expects TTF prices to remain rangebound, as bearish demand fundamentals are balanced out by ongoing supply-side risks. Planned maintenance at Norwegian gas facilities continues this week, while scheduled outages at US LNG export terminals may cap near-term availability, keeping LNG exports stable or marginally lower.

At the same time, the market continues to assess the implications of the EU Commission roadmap to phase out Russian gas. While details are expected in June, lingering uncertainty could limit downside pressure. On the other hand, the European Parliament approved the EU Commission’s legislation proposal that would introduce additional flexibility to refilling targets, offering some relief to prices.

Diving into fundamentals last week, net pipeline flows into the EU decreased by 2.5% w/w as planned maintenance in Norway continues. Net EU pipeline imports remain 0.38 bcm lower y/y following the halt of Russian gas supply via Ukraine but also driven by reduced y/y exports from Algeria.

Norwegian flows are expected to improve next week as the most intensive phase of maintenance concludes, with curtailed capacity set to ease from around 70 mcm/d to 25 mcm/d.

EU-27 weekly net pipeline gas imports (bcm), y/y comparison

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 01/05/2024 and 30/04/2025.

European LNG imports rose to 2.4 mt over the past 7 days (+4% w/w), driven by higher imports in Southern Europe and the CEE/Baltics region.

EU-27 weekly LNG imports (mt)

Source: Kpler Insight. Data represents week commencing 23/04 and 30/04/2025.NWE=FR, BEL, NL,GER. Iberia=ESP, POR. Med=ITA, HVR, GRE. Baltics/CEE=FI, LT, POL. Others=SWE, MT.

Gas consumption from local distribution networks across 15 EU continued its downward trajectory, falling to 1.15 bcm last week—a 19% decline w/w. Most countries registered lower consumption, except for Portugal and Spain. We anticipate local distribution demand will continue to ease into the coming weeks as we approach the summer plateau and public holidays in parts of Europe limit the upside.

EU-15 weekly consumption in the local distribution (res/com) sector (bcm)

Source: ENTSOG, ENAGAS, Eurstream, AGCM, Kpler Insight. The EU-15 perimeter includes AT, BE, CZE, FR, HU, GRE, ITA, NL, LUX, POL, POR, ROM, SLVN, SLVK, and SPA.

Average forecast temperatures for selected European countries (°C)

Source: Kpler Power. As of 8 May 00:00 UTC.

EU-27 gas-fired generation fell by 22% w/w to an estimated 4.1 TWh, as a sharp recovery in wind output reduced the need for gas in the power mix. Weekly wind generation reached its highest level for this time of year in the past two years, reversing the persistent underperformance. Looking ahead, we expect gas-for-power demand to remain broadly stable, with wind output forecast to hover around seasonal norms, limiting the need for additional gas burn.

EU-27 weekly gas-fired generation (TWh)

Source: Kpler Power, Kpler Insight

As of 6 May, EU gas stocks stood at 41.6% full, up 2.4% points w/w. Injection activity accelerated last week, supported by subdued demand and LNG supply, although the pace slowed down at the start of this week. Despite this, cumulative injections are 1.3 bcm higher than the 5-year average and at the highest level since 2022 (see graph).

On May 8, the European Parliament approved the European Commission’s proposed amendments to the EU gas storage regulation. The draft legislation seeks to reduce filling targets and add flexibility to filling trajectory. The legislation now moves to negotiations with the European Council, with the first talks scheduled for 13 May.

EU-27 cumulative gas storage injections (bcm)

Source: GIE, Kpler Insight. Latest date as of 06/05/25.

Want the complete report?

The full report is available within Insight and contains:

• Market & Trading Calls
• Europe: Mixed drivers to keep TTF steady amid Russian phase-out roadmap
• Asia: Prices face headwinds as inventories swell, mild weather persists, and Indian demand lags recent price gains
• US: Prices remain above $3.50/MMBtu amid warming summer forecasts
• LNG Supply: Maintenance in the US weighs on feedgas deliveries; Freeport power trip short-lived

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