Arbitrage

Real-time value comparison, refining margins & route profitability

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Arbitrage

Landed value

Pinpoint the most profitable crude routes by comparing delivered values across regions, factoring in freight, quality, and pricing.

  • Split by origin/destination, grades, matrix granularity (5 day, 10 day, or monthly), vessel classifications, refinery type
  • Greyscale cells update every 30 minutes
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Refining margins

Instantly gauge refinery profitability by tracking crude costs versus refined product values across global markets.

  • The matrix displays refining margins by crude, refinery type, route, vessel type, and voyage time
  • The refining margin view is the profit lens: how much money can a refiner make running this crude?
  • It shows the absolute profit potential of each crude for a refinery type
  • The landed value doesn’t take crude quality into consideration - the refinery margin does
  • This view is useful for ranking crude grades for a refinery
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Arbitrage

Arbitrage

Spot real-time price gaps between markets to uncover high-value trading and reallocation opportunities.

  • Shows whether an imported crude delivers higher profitability than the local reference grade — the ultimate “is it worth switching?” test
  • Distills complex economics into a simple red/green signal, saving hours of manual diff and margin comparisons
  • Highlights incremental gains or losses versus local supply, so refiners and traders can act quickly on open arbs or avoid loss-making moves
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Transparent value breakdown

See exactly what drives landed value with a full breakdown of freight, quality, and pricing components.

  • Displays the component and subcomponent values for:
    • FOB diff
    • Time structure
    • Benchmark spread
    • Freight
    • Costs
  • See clearly why a landed value, refining margin, or arbitrage value has changed by interrogating the component values
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Transparent value breakdown

Scenario builder

The Scenario builder is an interactive tool that helps traders, analysts, and risk managers test, compare, and visualise arbitrage opportunities in dynamic market conditions.

  • Custom assumptions: Adjust inputs such as freight rates, duties, and pricing basis to reflect the specific market environment you want to test
  • Scenario modelling: Evaluate how a particular set of conditions impacts arbitrage economics
  • Sensitivity exploration: Quickly see how changing a single assumption (e.g., freight or duty) shifts the outcome of a trade
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Scenario builder

Compare grade value across trading regions

The comparison feature lets users quickly benchmark arbitrage values or refining margins for a crude grade across multiple regions, helping them see where that crude is most competitively valued.

  • Compare a single crude grade across several destination markets in one view.
  • Compare multiple crudes within a trading region.
  • Instantly spot which regions offer the strongest economics or weakest demand signals.
  • Supports faster, data-driven decisions on pricing, tender strategy, and market allocation.
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Compare grade value across trading regions

“Kpler is one of the few truly objective research outfits. No agenda, just data-driven insights.”

BNP Paribas
Commodity Strategist, BNP Paribas

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