Asian LNG and TTF poised for decline after EC announcement on EU storage refilling, warmer weather, and strong supply; Henry Hub faces upside on tariff risks

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Bearish as the market digests the latest news on gas storage target flexibility outlined by the EC. Warmer temperatures, strong solar generation and plentiful LNG supply help provide bearish pressure.

Asian LNG price outlook: Bearish, driven by anticipated declines in European TTF, weak Northeast Asian demand, elevated inventory levels, and stable Pacific supply.

TTF-Asian LNG spread: Stable as both markets trend lower. As of 5 March, Asian LNG prices maintain a $0.72/MMBtu premium over TTF, with the spread narrowing by $0.08/MMBtu due to TTF rising more than Asian LNG over the past week.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Bullish as prices remain elevated due to risks associated with the US levying tariffs on Canada and underground storage levels now sitting well below the five-year average.