Asian LNG and TTF prices to hold steady after Ukraine’s acceptance of a temporary ceasefire sees limited market impact

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Stable as temperatures and renewable energy output are forecast to increase gradually in the coming days. This will be balanced by a slight decrease in net pipeline gas flows into the EU and the need to maintain NW Europe netbacks at a premium to keep attracting LNG supply.

Asian LNG price outlook: Stable, buoyed by steady European TTF price expectations, mild weather forecasts for Northeast Asia, and ample Pacific supply—balancing out upward pressures from restocking in South Korea and growing demand in South and Southeast Asia.

TTF-Asian LNG spread: Stable as both TTF and Asian LNG prices are projected to follow a steady trend. As of 12 March, Asian LNG prices hold a $0.20/MMBtu premium over the European TTF, with the spread narrowing by $0.52/MMBtu since last week due to TTF rising and Asian LNG declining slightly.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Bearish as above-average temperatures are forecast for nearly all of the Lower 48. Despite the geopolitical risks playing havoc with prices in recent weeks, weather conditions seemingly stepped into the forefront this week.