Brazilian iron ore exports down; Indian copper concentrate imports to ramp up

Iron Ore & Steel: Brazilian iron ore exports slowed by rail blockade

• Global seaborne iron ore exports dipped to 27.49 Mt in the week commencing 2 December, the lowest weekly volume in eight months. The decline was mainly attributed to a year-to-date low in Brazilian iron ore shipments, which slumped to 4.84 Mt from 7.57 Mt the previous week and 7.17 Mt a year earlier. This sharp fall was primarily caused by a three-day blockade of Vale’s Carajás Railroad by landless workers in Parauapebas. Kpler data show that 21 iron ore vessels were waiting to be loaded at the port of São Luís, the terminus of the Carajás Railroad, by the end of last week — the highest number in two months.
• In Australia, the risk of disruptions is increasing as labour disputes between Qube and the Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) have prompted planned strikes at key ports, including Dampier and Hedland.
• On the demand side, Chinese seaborne iron ore imports remain firm, reaching 25.15 Mt last week, up 3 Mt y/y and well above the previous five-year average of 22.27 Mt for this period. Counter-seasonal strength in steel production, restocking by mills ahead of the Chinese New Year, and a slight drop in port inventories are all supporting imports. However, the risk of potential declines in steel exports undermining steel production and iron ore demand is rising. Although November steel exports totalled 9.28 Mt — the seventh-highest monthly volume since mid-2016 — this marked a significant drop from October’s 11.18 Mt. Growing trade barriers, including new anti-dumping investigations by Australia, South Africa, and Thailand over the past few weeks, are clouding the outlook for Chinese steel exports.
• Awaiting signals on additional stimulus from the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), iron ore prices closed little changed w/w on 11 December. The SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) benchmark ended at $104.58/t on 11 December, down 0.72% w/w, while the May 2025 iron ore contract, the most liquid on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), edged up slightly by 1.13% w/w to 802 yuan/t ($110.46/t).