Dangote running at full throttle

Dangote Refinery has ramped up close to max capacity (around 640 kbd) in April, exceeding prior estimates and marking a step-change in operational performance. The refinery is operating in max jet and max gasoline modes, driven by improved unit reliability and optimisation. This has shifted Nigeria into a net gasoline exporter while increasing jet exports into Europe at a critical time. The ramp-up reflects structural gains rather than a short-term response to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with further upside still feasible.

The Dangote refinery is ramping up at pace, with April runs reaching 630 to 650 kbd, marking a new operational high. Despite broader market focus on Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Dangote has quietly emerged as a key marginal supplier, significantly scaling both crude intake and product exports.

Dangote refinery runs (kbd)

Source: Kpler

While the timing of this ramp-up coincides with tightening global product balances following the Strait of Hormuz disruption, the increase in runs is not purely reactive. Dangote has been undertaking corrective and preventive measures over the past year to improve unit reliability, particularly across the RFCC, meaning the current elevated throughput reflects structural operational gains rather than short-term opportunistic behaviour. For context, so far this month crude intake has reached an all-time high of 610 kbd, with the refinery running almost entirely on Nigerian crude, pointing to improved domestic crude availability and reduced reliance on imported barrels.

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