Drone strikes trigger early drop in Russian crude runs ahead of autumn maintenance season

August saw the most severe wave of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure since mid-2022, with up to 10 refineries hit. Facilities accounting for over 1.5 Mbd of capacity were affected, triggering a sharp, multi-week drop in throughput. Preliminary estimates point to a 400–500 kbd decline in crude runs for the month. While repairs are underway, past patterns suggest lasting impacts into October, compounding domestic product tightness and export risks.