Hormuz Strait disruptions trigger a price spike in TTF and Asian LNG, while Middle East exports come to a halt

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East halted LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz, sending TTF and Asian LNG prices sharply higher. The loss of Qatari exports and growing competition for Atlantic cargoes are tightening global LNG balances. Meanwhile, Henry Hub shows a muted reaction, holding near $3.00/MMBtu.

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF front-month price outlook: Bullish, as the war in the Middle East, worries on Qatari supply, and higher competition with Asian buyers will put upward pressure on prices. Milder temperatures and ample gas supply for the week ahead will somewhat offset this bullish pressure.

Asian LNG front-month price outlook: Bullish, as Hormuz supply risk could remove up to 5.8 mt of Middle East LNG in March, tightening balances and forcing Asia to compete for Atlantic Basin cargoes, with early signs of US and Atlantic LNG diversions toward the Pacific as the inter-basin arbitrage widens.

Asian LNG – TTF spread outlook: stable, as both indices are set to rise on the back of the conflict in the Middle East. The TTF premium widened to $1.54/MMBtu on 4 March, with TTF outpacing Asian LNG prices in recent trading sessions.

US Henry Hub front-month price outlook: Stable as bearish temperature forecasts and strong production offset the impacts of geopolitical risk and robust LNG feed gas demand.