Iron ore price weakness, coal trade shifts, and agri supply outlook

Iron Ore & Steel: Iranian pellet exports curtailed, iron ore price slides

• Global seaborne iron ore exports reached 129 Mt in April, easing from the March high of 147 Mt but consistent with the previous five-year average. Australian shipments totalled 73 Mt, following the typical post-March decline. In contrast, Brazilian loadings continued their seasonal improvement, rising to a four-month high of 29.40 Mt.
• In Iran, iron ore exports appear to have halted following an explosion at the Bandar Abbas port on 26 April. No vessels have departed since 22 April. As a small iron ore exporter, Iran shipped 10.11 Mt in 2024, overwhelmingly iron ore pellets. China has long been the destination for almost all Iranian iron ore volumes as US sanctions restrict access to other markets. While the disruption may affect a handful of Chinese pellet consumers in the short term, the overall impact on the Chinese and global iron ore market is expected to be negligible, particularly in the current oversupplied market environment. Exports from other Gulf nations, notably Bahrain, continue uninterrupted.
• On the demand front, Chinese seaborne iron ore imports finished at 102 Mt in April, almost flat y/y. Imports are expected to remain firm in May, in line with seasonal patterns. However, potential steel output cuts later this year could still weigh on iron ore demand. Baoshan Iron & Steel, the country’s largest listed steelmaker, has suggested a nationwide production cut is “likely” and forecasts a decline in direct and indirect steel exports by an estimated 15 Mt and 20 Mt, respectively, due to mounting global trade restrictions.
• Iron ore prices weakened over the past week as sentiment soured on the back of anticipated steel production curbs. The DCE’s most traded iron ore contract (Sept 2025) fell by 3.23% w/w to 703.50 yuan/t ($96.72/t) on 30 April, while the SGX TSI 62% Fe June 2025 contract price closed at $95.20/t on the same day. Despite recent declines, $100/t remains an important psychological resistance level for the iron ore price, and we do not expect it to stray too far from this mark in the short term.