Stronger June power-sector gas burn lifts Taiwan LNG demand despite Q4 coal recovery

Stronger-than-expected gas-for-power demand in June prompts Kpler Insight to raise its 2026 Taiwan LNG demand forecast by 0.1 mt to 24.2 mt. Lower coal-fired generation and weaker coal imports increased reliance on gas, outweighing the expected drag from stronger solar output in September–October and higher coal utilisation in Q4. The modest LNG demand upgrade adds limited support to Asian spot LNG prices. For 2027, stronger renewable utilisation and a slower coal phase-down reduce the LNG demand forecast by 0.2 mt to 25.4 mt.

‍

Market & Trading Calls

• Taiwan LNG demand: Slightly higher. Kpler Insight raises its 2026 forecast by 0.1 mt to 24.2 mt, as stronger-than-expected gas-for-power demand more than offsets stronger solar output in late Q3 and early Q4 and higher coal utilisation in Q4. The 2027 forecast decreases by 0.2 mt to 25.4 mt, reflecting stronger renewable utilisation and a slower coal phase-down.
• Asian LNG prices: Stable. The 0.1 mt increase in Taiwan’s 2026 LNG requirement, equivalent to around 1–2 cargoes, provides limited support to regional prices.

Taiwan Ministry of Economic Affairs data for June 2026 showed total gas consumption rising to 2.76 bcm, up 0.05 bcm y/y, supported by stronger gas-for-power demand. Power-sector gas consumption increased by 0.07 bcm y/y to 2.26 bcm, more than offsetting a 0.02 bcm decline in non-power demand to 0.51 bcm.

The generation mix reinforced the increase in gas demand. Gas-fired output rose by 0.37 TWh y/y to 12.76 TWh, while coal-fired generation fell by 0.74 TWh to 9.14 TWh. Weekly coal imports into Taichung averaged around 0.19 mt in June, down from 0.20 mt a year earlier, before easing further into July. Lower coal availability and utilisation increased reliance on gas-fired generation, pushing June power-sector gas burn above expectations.

‍