The future of Guinea's position in global bauxite trade and its alumina ambition

In the first seven months of 2025, Guinea accounted for 73% of global seaborne bauxite exports, consolidating its position as the dominant force in international bauxite trade. However, we have identified some headwinds that might shake Guinea's supremacy and hamper the country's ambition to build bauxite refining capacity.

• With new projects coming online and some expansion plans being put on the agenda elsewhere, Guinea's share in the global bauxite trade may peak soon.
• Resource nationalism, domestic politics, and the ramp-up of the Simandou iron ore may cap Guinea's export capacity.
• Guinea's alumina ambition might be hampered by infrastructure constraints, political and social stability concerns, and the global alumina oversupply.

Guinean bauxite exports and its share in global seaborne trade (Mt, %)

Source: Kpler