Iraqi Basrah crude exports rebound toward 3.00 Mbd in October

South Iraq crude loadings at Basrah are on track to hit 3.00 Mbd in October, marking a strong recovery as Middle East vessel flows adapt to regional conditions.

‍

Key Takeaways

• Basrah Loading Acceleration: South Iraq’s crude oil loadings at Basrah are expected to average near 3.00 Mbd in October 2026, building on mid-month run-rates of 2.90 Mbd and marking a sustained recovery from May’s bottom of 98 kbd.
• Hormuz Transit Resilience: Full-month September loadings reached 2.58 Mbd, while confirmed Iraqi crude cargo transits through the Strait of Hormuz reached 2.92 Mbd during the same period.
• Europe-Bound Tracking Dynamics: Out of four vessels confirmed to transit the Bab el-Mandeb in October, Aframax tankers  engaged in dark transits across Middle Eastern waters before resurfacing in the Northern Red Sea.
• Selective Maritime Risk Profile: Commercial shipping carrying Iraqi crude has operated without declared targeting from Yemen's Houthis, unlike Saudi trade routes.

Leaving a handful of days to the month end, South Iraq’s crude oil loadings at Basrah in October are expected to average around 3.00 Mbd, demonstrating operational resilience despite intensifying regional attacks on commercial shipping, including vessels controlled by Iraq. This performance marks a sustained recovery from the severe low of 98 kbd recorded in May 2026. For the full month of September 2026, Iraqi loadings reached 2.58 Mbd—approaching the 2025 full-year baseline average of 3.34 Mbd—while confirmed Iraqi crude cargo transits through the Strait of Hormuz reached 2.92 Mbd during the same period.

‍