WHITEPAPER
Beyond open or closed: The Hormuz crisis and the future architecture of maritime risk
This whitepaper examines what proprietary data from 895 observed crossings reveals about the new architecture of maritime risk in the Strait of Hormuz.
The 2026 Hormuz crisis has fundamentally changed what maritime risk means. Transits are down 92%, GNSS spoofing is distorting vessel records at scale, and sanctions exposure now begins before a payment is made.
Drawing on proprietary data from 895 observed crossings, this whitepaper examines how visibility, routing, insurance and compliance exposure have converged into a single, harder-to-navigate risk environment.
Key takeaways
- 93.6% of vessels are deviating from the IMO TSS — and route choice alone no longer tells you enough about risk profile
- GNSS spoofing and AIS disruption are creating voyage record gaps that raise the evidentiary burden for compliance teams, insurers and counterparties
- Four forward-looking scenarios show why Hormuz risk is shifting from open-versus-closed to conditional passage — and which vessel behavior signals to watch
Access our free whitepaper to gain valuable industry insights:
“I rely on the Kpler Whitepapers to stay ahead of the latest market trends and industry insights.”
Michael Rodriguez
Chief Strategy Officer, Global Trade Inc
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