TTF to maintain premium over Asian LNG as European policy uncertainty and supply risks offset weak demand fundamentals

Market & Trading Calls

European TTF price outlook: Neutral as bearish demand fundamentals and strong injections are balanced by ongoing Norwegian maintenance, US LNG outages, and policy-driven uncertainty linked to the EU’s Russian gas phase-out roadmap.

Asian LNG price outlook: Slightly bearish as soft Indian demand, persistent mild weather, and ample inventories erode recent spot LNG price gains, curbing momentum and sidelining opportunistic buyers.

Asian LNG – TTF spread: Slightly narrowing with Asian LNG facing downward pressure and TTF stabilizing after rallying on 6 May. As such, we expect TTF to maintain its premium over Asian LNG prices over the next week. As of 7 May, the Asian LNG price spread to TTF flipped, trading at a $0.09/MMBtu discount.

US Henry Hub price outlook: Steady as expectations of a warm second half of May are offset by multiple triple-digit weekly underground storage injections.

Key natural gas and LNG prices ($/MMBtu)

Source: ICE, NYMEX, Spark Commodities. Brent-indexed price represents 12% slope of 90-day moving average of Brent contract. Netforward USGC to NWE calculation is 115% Henry Hub contract plus shipping and regasification costs into Gate (Spark Commodities).