The turning tides: Maritime risk and compliance insights 2025-2026
This whitepaper reveals how sanctions, shadow fleets, and deceptive shipping behaviours reshaped maritime risk in 2025 — and how predictive compliance signals can help risk and compliance teams anticipate exposure before enforcement escalates in 2026.
In 2025, maritime compliance crossed a critical threshold: shadow fleets scaled, deceptive behaviours became systemic, and risk increasingly migrated across routes and networks rather than disappearing, raising the bar for compliance going into 2026.
This analysis of more than 3,300 vessels shows that sanction designations consistently follow detectable behavioural signals well before enforcement, proving compliance risk can be anticipated, not just identified.
Key takeaways
- Sanctions are now structural: Shadow shipping is a durable part of global trade, not a temporary workaround.
- Deception is a leading risk indicator: AIS spoofing, dark STS activity, and opaque ownership now drive exposure.
- Predictive compliance is essential: Static watchlists lag risk; behavioral analytics enable earlier, more resilient decision-making.
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