Explainer: the nuances of reading Hormuz oil flows data

Hormuz oil numbers vary across sources mainly because definitions do. This explainer sets out the counting lines Kpler publishes, why the newest days revise higher, and how the main official figures map onto tracked data.

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Why the numbers may differ

Since the strait was again shut in June and traffic shifted to escorted corridors, estimates have ranged from about 5 to 10 mbd for oil leaving the strait itself, and up to 15 mbd for the region as a whole. Most of that spread comes from three definitional choices: what counts as oil (crude only, or all petroleum liquids), where the counting line sits (the strait itself, the Gulf of Oman, or the wider region including bypass terminals), and when a barrel is dated (at loading, at crossing, or when it surfaces). Kpler defines all three explicitly. Official figures do not publish their definitions, so comparisons between the two are mapping exercises rather than contradictions.

The counting lines Kpler publishes

Kpler measures regional petroleum-liquids exports at three concentric lines, each a confirmed floor built from tracking, imagery, and market and import-side intelligence.

Strait transits: cargo on vessels with a confirmed crossing, dated by crossing.

Total Hormuz clearance: strait transits plus Gulf of Oman net exports, the unmatched remainder of the offshore shuttle system. Cargo whose ship-to-ship chain cannot yet be traced to a load terminal surfaces attached to the Gulf of Oman zone, and the net-exports construction adds exactly that remainder. It has averaged 8.6 mbd since the MoU signing on 17 June.

The wider regional measure: adding Fujairah and Omani terminal loadings to Hormuz clearance, which reach the market without passing the narrows, roughly 2.4 and 1.6 mbd in August.

Separately, Kpler tracks loadings that bypass the strait entirely, at Yanbu, Fujairah, and Oman berths. This bypass data is not a fourth concentric line: its Fujairah and Oman legs are the same loadings already counted in the wider regional measure, so the two series cannot be added.

All Kpler figures in the table are petroleum liquids, defined in the source note, and confirmed floors as of 27 August 2026 that revise upward as confirmations land. The rows are alternative counting lines, not additive components: Fujairah and Omani loadings sit inside both the wider regional measure and the bypass loadings row, so rows cannot be summed.

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