See where the market is pulling the barrel
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Diesel and jet fuel move between major supply and demand centres around the world. Changes in physical prices, forward curves, freight and voyage timing continually reshape which routes work and which markets offer the strongest economics.
Kpler Middle Distillate Arbitrage brings those components together in one forward view.
See which origins can commercially supply an importing market, compare competing destinations for available supply, and understand where current pricing is creating the strongest pull on marginal barrels.
Then put those economics into the context of the physical market with Kpler Flows, Fixtures, Tonnage Supply and wider market intelligence.
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Markets move quickly. Point-in-Time lets users select a historical date and see the arbitrage as it appeared on that day.
Use it to:
- Reconstruct historical arb conditions
- Investigate when route economics changed
- Review past trading decisions
- Compare historical economics with subsequent flows and fixtures
Arbitrage economics don't move in isolation.
The Middle Distillate Arb View brings Kpler analyst perspective to the middle-distillate arbitrage market, putting changing route economics into the context of physical trade and wider market developments.
Use Arb View to:
- Understand developments behind changing route economics
- Put individual opportunities into wider global context
- Connect physical trade with market fundamentals
- Identify the themes shaping diesel and jet arbitrage
See how forward trade economics compare with observed cargo movements. Use Flows vs Economics to examine how route economics and physical flows have evolved over time, then use the Sankey view to put individual opportunities into the context of established global trade patterns.
Middle Distillate Arbitrage tells you what current forward economics are incentivising.
Kpler's wider datasets help you understand the physical and fundamental market around those economics.
CARGO ANALYTICS / FLOWS
Where are barrels actually moving?
Track global diesel and jet movements and see how physical trade is evolving.
SUPPLY & DEMAND
How is the regional balance changing?
Put arbitrage economics into the context of expected regional diesel and jet balances and seasonal trends.
A more negative regional balance indicates greater reliance on external supply. It does not represent a forecast of unmet demand.
INVENTORIES
What's already in storage?
Where refined-product inventory coverage is available, add stock context to understand changing local availability.
REFINERIES
How is refinery activity affecting supply?
Add refinery runs, outages and product-output context to understand changes in regional availability.
INSIGHT
What's driving the market?
Add Kpler analyst interpretation of the fundamental, pricing and geopolitical developments shaping middle-distillate markets.
Bring Kpler Arbitrage data directly into your existing workflows. Access arb calculations and underlying components programmatically through the API, analyse and customise the data in the Excel Add-In, or connect it to AI-powered workflows through MCP.
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FAQ
Kpler Middle Distillate Arbitrage is a forward view of diesel and jet fuel arbitrage that brings together physical prices, forward curves, freight and voyage timing. You can see which origins can commercially supply an importing market, compare competing destinations for available supply, and understand where current pricing is pulling marginal barrels.
- Export + arbitrage: where a barrel should go, by comparing destinations for the same supply across forward windows.
- Import + arbitrage: which origins can profitably supply your market, with open and closed arbs shown across forward windows.
- Landed value: which origin has the lowest landed value.
No. An open arb doesn't guarantee a destination will win the barrel. If every available route is closed, the product may still need to be sold somewhere. Use Export + Arbitrage to compare destinations and see where current pricing creates the strongest economic pull, rather than looking only for open routes.
Not every destination has a sufficiently liquid brokered delivered market to establish a physical sales price. Where a sales price isn't available, an outright arbitrage cannot be calculated. Landed Value compares the all-in cost of delivering product from alternative origins instead. It accounts for physical price, freight, voyage timing and other costs, and ranks potential suppliers on a consistent basis.
Yes. Select any cell in the breakdown matrix to open the detailed economics behind that route, broken into physical differential, time structure, benchmark translation, freight and other costs. The Breakdown answers "Why is this the arb value?" Scenario Builder answers "What if?" You can change physical differentials, freight, benchmark spreads and costs to reflect your own view, and the calculated economics update immediately.
Yes. “Point-in-time” lets you select a historical date and see the arbitrage as it appeared on that day. Use it to reconstruct historical arb conditions, investigate when route economics changed, review past trading decisions, and compare historical economics with subsequent flows and fixtures. Flows vs Economics also overlays historical flows with arbitrage economics, so you can see when market incentives and observed cargo movements converge or diverge.
Freight is a key part of any arbitrage calculation, and the freight market is shaped by vessel availability. Three features add shipping context in the same workspace:
- Fixtures: newly reported fixtures, including vessel, cargo size, charterer, load and discharge ports, and laycan.
- Tonnage supply: historical tonnage availability X days forward, compared with the calculated freight rate.
- Cumulative fixtures: how fixtures are accumulating on a route compared with historical patterns, and whether the pace of new fixtures is accelerating or slowing.
