Dangote Refinery: July Maintenance Curbs Refinery Output and Product Exports

Dangote Refinery's refinery operations and product exports have fallen to a three-month low in July as ongoing maintenance has significantly reduced refinery throughput. Crude runs have declined to around 350-400 kbd since 10th July, removing an important source of gasoline, jet fuel and gasoil exports at a time when global product markets remain tight.

Dangote Refinery Became a Key Swing Supplier

Since March, Dangote Refinery has emerged as one of the most important incremental suppliers of refined products into the Atlantic Basin. As geopolitical tensions escalated across the Middle East, the refinery significantly ramped up and increased exports, particularly jet fuel to Europe, providing an alternative source of supply as Middle Eastern product flows tightened. Following CDU and RFCC maintenance in February, crude runs steadily increased to 600-650 kbd, with June throughput approaching the refinery's expanded 700 kbd capacity (10% creep from the designed capacity).

Despite operating at elevated crude runs, the refinery continued to face operational constraints at its 204 kbd RFCC, limiting conversion efficiency and preventing the unit from operating at its rated capacity. However, healthy refining margins allowed Dangote to maximise crude processing while exporting incremental fuel oil and crude bottoms.

July Maintenance Reduces Runs and Exports

Operations deteriorated in July after issues involving the Flue Gas Steam Generator (FGSG) triggered maintenance work. Unlike previous outages, the latest disruption is not directly related to the RFCC but has constrained overall refinery operations. Since 10 July, the refinery has been operating its CDU at roughly 50% throughput, and the RFCC at around 55% utilisation (as per IIR), reducing crude runs to approximately 350-400 kbd. Kpler has therefore lowered its July crude throughput forecast to around 450 kbd, from the previously expected 650 kbd, leading to a shortfall of around 75 kbd of gasoline, 50 kbd Jet and 40 Kbd Gasoil.

Dangote Refinery Product Exports & Refinery runs (kbd)

Source: Kpler

‍

The slowdown has reduced seaborne refined product exports to their lowest level in three months, removing an important source of jet fuel, gasoline and gasoil supply from the Atlantic Basin. Since regional tensions escalated, Dangote has emerged as a key swing supplier, particularly through jet fuel exports to Europe, helping offset tighter Middle Eastern product flows. The July disruption therefore adds further pressure to an already tight global products market, where lower Russian refinery exports and choked Middle Eastern Gulf refinery product export (and runs) continue to constrain refined product supply.

Recovery Expected by End-July

Based on the scope of repair work and current market intelligence (IIR), Kpler expects maintenance to conclude during the final week of July, allowing the CDU to return to full rates within days ( to 100% utilization) , followed by a gradual ramp-up of the RFCC (to around 80-90% by 1st week of August). We expect refinery runs to recover to around 650-675 kbd during August-September, supported by healthy refining margins. As tensions around the Strait of Hormuz increasingly point toward a more prolonged disruption scenario, Dangote Refinery is expected to remain a key supplier of refined products to the Atlantic Basin market. That said, operational risks remain elevated. Since start-up, the RFCC and associated units have experienced repeated maintenance cycles after 6-10 weeks of operation, suggesting reliability remains the key downside risk to sustaining high utilisation.

‍