Dangote running at full throttle

Dangote Refinery has ramped up close to max capacity (around 640 kbd) in April, exceeding prior estimates and marking a step-change in operational performance. The refinery is operating in max jet and max gasoline modes, driven by improved unit reliability and optimisation. This has shifted Nigeria into a net gasoline exporter while increasing jet exports into Europe at a critical time. The ramp-up reflects structural gains rather than a short-term response to Strait of Hormuz disruptions, with further upside still feasible.

The Dangote refinery is ramping up at pace, with April runs reaching 630 to 650 kbd, marking a new operational high. Despite broader market focus on Strait of Hormuz disruptions, Dangote has quietly emerged as a key marginal supplier, significantly scaling both crude intake and product exports.

Dangote refinery runs (kbd)

Source: Kpler

While the timing of this ramp-up coincides with tightening global product balances following the Strait of Hormuz disruption, the increase in runs is not purely reactive. Dangote has been undertaking corrective and preventive measures over the past year to improve unit reliability, particularly across the RFCC, meaning the current elevated throughput reflects structural operational gains rather than short-term opportunistic behaviour. For context, so far this month crude intake has reached an all-time high of 610 kbd, with the refinery running almost entirely on Nigerian crude, pointing to improved domestic crude availability and reduced reliance on imported barrels.

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Operationally, the refinery is running in a dual optimisation mode, maximising both jet and gasoline output. This follows the completion of a two-month RFCC shutdown, with the unit restarting in mid-February 2026 after addressing earlier operational constraints. Since then, runs have remained high, supported by the successful completion of its Performance Guarantee Test Run, indicating improved operational stability and resolution of prior issues. Refining operations have been further supported by strong margins and stable performance across the major processing secondary units, according to information available to Kpler.

Gasoline yields are being driven through the RFCC, although utilisation remains constrained at 75–85% due to unit limitations, with some fuel oil exports still ongoing (albeit limited to 1–2 parcels), suggesting further upside as optimisation improves. On the middle distillate side, the mild hydrocracker (MHC) is being pushed in max-jet mode, effectively upgrading gasoil into higher-value jet barrels.

We estimate a 3–4% uplift in jet yields during March-May compared to normal operations, supported by sustained MHC optimisation alongside CDU cut-point adjustments. At the same time, gasoline yields have increased to 40–42%, driven primarily by the RFCC, with additional support from higher utilisation of secondary and tertiary units (reformer, isomerisation, alkylation) and increased naphtha blending.

Crude import & sea borne product exports (kbd)

Strong operations have translated into increased clean product movements, with seaborne total flows reaching over 450 kbd in April, marking a record. This has effectively turned Nigeria into a net gasoline exporter, a significant structural shift for the region. In parallel, Dangote has increased jet exports into Europe, arriving at a time when Atlantic Basin markets are tight, reinforcing its role as a timely marginal supplier. Indeed, mtd data shows a solid 33% increase m/m in jet departures out of the refinery in April.

The bottom line is that Dangote is now operating at near peak intensity, effectively running its refining system in a well-optimised cycle. With the RFCC still not at full capacity and optimisation ongoing, there remains further upside to runs and product yields. This positions Dangote as an increasingly important swing supplier, particularly for jet and gasoline, at a time when global markets remain structurally tight.

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