August 26, 2025

Capesize earnings retreat as mounting vessel supply in Asia-Pacific pressures rates

Iron Ore & Steel: Iron ore exports hit the highest level in over a year

Global seaborne iron ore exports surged to 36.90 Mt in the week ending 17 August, marking a 13-month high. This is mainly driven by record shipments from Brazil, where exports build towards their typical seasonal peak in August. A record high in Canadian shipments also supported the upswing as departures from Baffinland gain further momentum.
In Australia, iron ore exports finished at 17.90 Mt last week, recovering from early August’s dip. The conclusion of maintenance works at Hancock Iron Ore’s operations enabled its shipments from Stanley Point to resume at over 1 Mt. Meanwhile, Fenix Resources marked a milestone with the first shipment from its recently commissioned Beebyn W-11 project (Nameplate capacity: 1.50 Mtpa). According to Kpler data, the Panamax vessel Bangor, carrying 60,000 tonnes of iron ore, departed Geraldton Port on 17 August and is en route to Qingdao, China, with arrival expected in early September.
On the demand side, China imported 25.40 Mt of seaborne iron ore last week, retreating from the near-record high witnessed in early August but remaining well above the previous five-year average of 23.90 Mt for the period. However, the demand for iron ore may soften as steel output may be curtailed due to environmental restrictions ahead of the Victory Day military parade on 3 September. As a result, this could contribute to a further build-up in port inventories, which had already risen for two consecutive weeks in the first half of August.
Iron ore markets have traded in a narrow band over the past week as the market weighs two major policy variables: the extent to which China’s environmental measures ahead of the military parade will disrupt steel production, and how new US tariffs on “derivative” steel products could shape global demand. The most-traded contract on DCE, January 2026, closed marginally lower, down 0.32% w/w at 772.50 yuan/t ($107.58/t). Meanwhile, the SGX TSI 62% Fe second-month contract slipped 0.82% w/w to $101.25/t at the time of writing.