CTA liquidation returns to base metals amid commodity-wide derisking

Trend-following CTAs sold an estimated 280kt of base metals on June 23, led by Comex Copper (130kt), LME Copper (70.9kt), Lead (38.3kt), and Aluminum (33.8kt), extending the commodity-wide derisking already seen in energy markets.

CTA de-risking has extended beyond crude, refined products, and natural gas (see here). Following an initial wave of liquidation in early June (see here), systematic selling accelerated again on June 23, when Trend-following CTAs sold an estimated 280kt of base metals across major exchanges:

• Copper (COMEX): ~11,475 lots across three strategies (130kt)
• Copper (LME): ~2,834 lots across one strategy (70.9kt)
• Aluminum (LME): ~1,352 lots across one strategy (33.8kt) to the first net short since Sep 5, 2025 (-18%)
• Tin (LME): ~228 lots across three strategies (1.1kt)
• Lead (LME): ~1,533 lots across three strategies (38.3kt)
• Nickel (SHFE): ~5,800 lots across two strategies (5.8kt)

Zinc (SHFE) remains the notable exception, with Trend-following CTAs buying an estimated 4,560 lots on June 23.

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