India's coal imports set to rebound in Q4 2026 as power-plant stocks tighten

India will need to lean on the seaborne market for thermal coal again from October 2026, as robust power demand collides with softer domestic mining output and dwindling plant-level stockpiles, according to Kpler Insight analysis.

Key takeaways

• India's coal-fired power generation is on track to rise nearly 14% year on year in August 2026, driven by firm power demand and a weak, monsoon-hit hydro season.
• Domestic coal production is set to fall more than 8% year on year in August, limiting the supply utilities can draw on domestically.
• Total coal stocks at Indian power plants are forecast to fall around 50% year on year by August 2026, to roughly 27 Mt.
• With domestic supply unable to close the gap, Kpler expects Indian utilities to resume seaborne thermal coal imports from October 2026 to rebuild buffer stocks.

Demand remains robust

India's power generation is running well above seasonal levels and shows no sign of slowing, the main driver of growth in coal burn. Coal-fired generation is expected to reach about 114 TWh in August 2026, up nearly 14% from a year earlier. Coal consumption should climb close to 10% year on year, rising to roughly 77 Mt in August from about 70 Mt a year ago.

Demand is also expected to stay firm into the fourth quarter of 2026, as industrial output reaches its seasonal peak. With solar generation fading over the winter months and hydro output weak after a poor monsoon, coal alone must carry a growing share of India's base-load power needs.

India historical vs. forecast coal-fired generation (TWh). Source: CEA, Kpler Insight.

Coal production trending lower

Domestic coal production is on track to decline more than 8% year on year in August, easing to around 64 Mt, before recovering from October through the fourth quarter of 2026.

Total coal received at power plants has barely moved, and is forecast at close to 66 Mt across both August and September, against coal consumption demand of 77 Mt and 68 Mt, respectively.

India coal production (Mt). Source: India Ministry of Coal.

Stockpiles under pressure

Total coal stocks are expected to decline by around 50% year on year in August, sliding to about 27 Mt from roughly 53 Mt a year earlier, with no meaningful improvement in stock levels likely before the end of the current financial year in April 2027.

This leaves Indian utilities exposed to critical stock levels unless imports are reintroduced for blending. The recovery in domestic output expected from October should only ease the pressure temporarily — production typically comes under strain again as the next monsoon approaches — pointing to October 2026 as the likely point at which import buying resumes to rebuild the buffer.

India utilities historical vs. forecast coal inventories (Mt). Source: CEA, Kpler Insight.

Imports set to climb

Putting these dynamics together, Kpler expects India's seaborne thermal coal imports to pick up again from October 2026, as utilities move to rebuild buffer stocks ahead of the next monsoon season.

India thermal coal imports (Mt). Source: Kpler.

This analysis is based on Kpler Insight research. For the full report and underlying data, view the original research update on the Kpler Terminal.