France’s record weekend of nuclear modulation and unplanned outages

During the 23-24th of November weekend, France registered record nuclear modulation activities and unplanned outages amid rising temperatures and stronger-than-average winds. In this article, we discuss the weekend’s market dynamics.

Last weekend, France experienced an abrupt end to the cold spell. Compared to the two-week average, temperatures surged by 5.5°C on Sunday, November 24th. As a result, power demand dropped from the 70 GW peak observed on Thursday and Friday, November 21st and 22nd, to a local minimum of 45 GW on Sunday, November 24th. Consequently, prices floored to near-zero prices in the day-ahead market. Amid stronger winds and low demand, French nuclear power responded with a record modulation activity, as highlighted in the graph below, ramping down around 17 GW.

A closer look at the nuclear fleet behaviour reveals a cluster of unplanned outages between November 23rd and 27th:

This resulted in a cumulative unplanned outage of 6.9 GW during the week-end. This event highlights two aspects:

• French nuclear generation once again demonstrated its role as flexible asset, modulating amid low demand and prices. This may occur not only during the traditional summer low-demand periods but also during winter.
• Are we witnessing an increase in opportunistic unplanned outages? In November, around 50% of nuclear outages lasting more than three hours occurred during this period.
• Tracking live unplanned outages is crucial to optimizing trades.

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