Running out of barrels: cumulative oil losses reach 782 Mbbls, closing in on 1000 Mbbls by late May

Cumulative crude and condensate supply losses in the Middle East have reached 782 Mbbls as of 8 May, with 1000 Mbbls expected to be reached later this month.

Cumulative Middle Eastern crude and condensate supply outages have continued to climb rapidly in recent weeks, currently hovering at 782 Mbbl as of 8 May, with outages expected to hit the 1,000 Mbbl mark later this month (see chart below).

Cumulative crude and condensate supply outages by country, Mbbls

Source: Kpler

Although Middle Eastern crude and condensate production outages have leveled off at around 12.5 Mbd in recent weeks, as most producers are now operating in line with domestic demand and export capacity constraints, disruptions have intensified over the past two weeks, primarily due to Iran, where the US blockade is reducing Iran's export capabilities and forcing a rapid reduction in domestic operations.

To mitigate potential shut-ins, Iran has been using the remaining ballast tankers in the Middle East Gulf for floating storage, but available capacity is running out rapidly, which will result in further production declines in the weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, Iranian onshore crude inventories are also being utilized and have continued to build through May, with stocks reaching 66 Mbbls as of 7 May, marking an increase of 6 Mbbls since late April.

Middle Eastern crude and condensate supply outages by country, kbd

Source: Kpler

While our base case still assumes a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by month-end, Middle Eastern supply outages have significantly altered the global crude balance compared to our expectations prior to the war. In fact, the global crude balance was hovering at large surpluses for March and April at the time.

Despite these severe supply outages, the resulting deficits for both March and April have been less severe, averaging around 2 Mbd (see chart below), as lower refinery throughput — particularly in Asia — alongside weaker demand and some demand destruction have partially offset the supply disruptions.

A detailed analysis on these dynamics and how the market has rebalanced following the disruption of nearly 20 Mbd of flows through the Strait of Hormuz can be found here.

These deficits broadly align with the inventory draws observed in recent months, with global onshore crude stocks falling by 60 Mbbls since late March to around 3,000 Mbbls currently, implying an average drawdown rate of roughly 2 Mbd over the past two months.

Global crude and condensate balance, Mbd

Source: Kpler

‍

Market insights you can trust

Kpler delivers unbiased, expert-driven intelligence that helps you stay ahead of supply, demand, and market shifts.Trade smarter. Request access to Kpler today.