Since the invasion, there has been an increase in the number of vessels operating in the Black Sea with lost AIS signals for one day or more, but there is no indication yet that this increase is linked to suspicious behaviour including covert ship-to-ship (STS) activity.
The war in Ukraine has quickly highlighted the fragility of grain markets. Prices have responded to the upside as a result. While loading disruptions have yet to surface, strict sanctions, a Russian agreement with China and disappointing Ukrainian yields are all likely to weigh on Black Sea loadings as the harvest season approaches in Q3. Med purchasers are poised to feel the biggest impacts, albeit the United States could help to fill the supply gap.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract hit a record high on Aug.16 before collapsing later in the week. This blog explains the reasons behind the rise and fall.
With less than a third of the month to go, Russian grade crude exports are hovering around 2.9 mbd, the slowest pace since March.