Egypt domestic production continues to fall despite new wells coming online, increasing LNG requirements

Recently released JODI data suggests that Egyptian domestic natural gas production fell from 3.7 Bcf/d (104.7 mcm/d) in June to 3.64 Bcf/d (103 mcm/d) in July, a 2.6% decrease. July 2026 saw Egypt import 1.67 mt of LNG, effectively maximizing their 19.7 mtpa of LNG regasification capacity. The record volumes came as Egypt experienced brutal mid-summer heat and domestic gas production declined more severely than expected. Lower-than-expected production is expected to slightly increase Egyptian LNG demand in 2026.

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Market & trading calls:

• 2026 Egypt domestic gas production: decreased from 37.5 bcm to 37.3 bcm on lower-than-expected July output.
• 2026 Egypt LNG demand: increased from 12.1 mt to 12.2 mt as Kpler Insight has reduced our forecast of Egyptian natural gas production based on the newly released data from JODI.

Domestic production in Egypt began steadily declining in late 2021, with recent drilling programs only serving to slow the pace of decline rather than meaningfully reverse it. While several new wells were drilled at key offshore gas fields in 2025, results proved disappointing as most of the wells produced below expectations. As a result, while domestic gas output held flat near 4 Bcf/d (115 mcm/d) in the second half of 2025, m/m declines resumed in early 2026.

Egypt gas balance (mcm)

Source: JODI, Kpler, Kpler Insight

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The m/m drop in production between June and July came even as Eni brought the 0.055 Bcf/d (1.56 mcm/d) Nidoco-2 well online in July, with declining output at other fields eclipsing the supply added by the new well. Compared to 2025, there are relatively few upstream developments slated for 2026, with the only new well expected to come online in 2026 and produce above 0.1 Bcf/d (2.83 mcm/d) being Shell’s 0.12 Bcf/d (3.4 mcm/d) Mina West. Shell indicated that Mina West would begin flowing gas in late 2026.

Additional marginal supply from smaller new near-field wells such as Eni’s 0.08 Bcf/d (2.26 mcm/d) Fayoum-4, which came online in mid-September, is expected to only modestly soften ongoing decline. The combined output from these smaller wells and Mina West may stabilize production in early 2027, though structural decline is anticipated to reassert itself shortly thereafter.

Egypt domestic gas production forecast (mcm/d)

Source: JODI, Kpler Insight

With July production results coming in lower than anticipated, Kpler Insight now forecasts Egypt to produce 37.3 bcm in 2026, down from our previous estimate of 37.5 bcm. As a result, we have increased our Egypt LNG demand forecast to 12.2 mt from 12.1 mt for 2026 and from 13.1 mt to 13.2 mt in 2027.

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