Fading speculative attention masks persistent diesel tightness

Atlantic Basin diesel tightness is far from resolved — lean PADD 1, PADD 2, and European stocks leave the market structurally undersupplied into Q4. US Gulf refiners are locked into the Americas as Latin America leans harder on them, while heavy Middle East turnarounds strip out another 875 kbd of winter ULSD capacity. Europe’s fallback on Indian diesel will be short-lived, with new EU sanctions on Russian feedstock looming in January and US pressure raising the risk that flows disappear sooner.