Iran: The calm before the storm or the TACO trade? | Jan 26

• Would Saudi Arabia and the UAE quietly benefit from Iran-related risk premiums, or are they more worried about being pulled into an uncontrolled escalation they don’t want?
• How do markets distinguish between deliberate U.S. restraint and a loss of deterrence? What signals could cause risk premiums to rise?
• What policy options does the United States realistically have that increase pressure on Iran without triggering broader regional instability?
• How does Israel’s strategic calculus change if Iran is internally unstable—does that lower or raise the risk of unilateral Israeli action?
• What is the probability of Iran attempting to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and what specific triggers would materially increase that risk?

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