Beyond open or closed: The Hormuz crisis and the future architecture of maritime risk
Synopsis
Strait of Hormuz transits are down 92%, war-risk premiums have been repriced, GNSS spoofing is distorting vessel records at scale, and sanctions exposure now begins before a single payment is made. As markets watch for signs of a potential reopening, maritime risk and compliance teams need to understand not only whether traffic resumes, but whether those movements can be trusted, verified and defended.
In this session, Kpler analysts draw on proprietary data from nearly 900 observed crossings to show how the risk architecture around Hormuz has shifted, what early reopening signals may look like, and what that means for your exposure right now.
What you'll learn
- How large-scale GNSS spoofing and AIS disruption are creating non-deliberate gaps in voyage records
- Who is crossing, how, and under what risk profile
- Which indicators could point to a gradual reopening, and what risks may remain even as transits resume
- The scenarios and signals that matter right now
Meet the speakers
Ana Subasic
Ana Subasic is a trade risk analyst at Kpler, where she combines energy market fundamentals, geopolitical analysis, and legal investigation to assess emerging trade risks, structures and sanctions circumvention. After joining Kpler in 2022 as an LNG market analyst, she transitioned into Risk and Compliance in 2025 to strengthen the team’s forward-looking analytical capabilities on a the cross-commodity scale. Her work focuses on shadow and dark trade investigations, including breaking intelligence and insights into high-risk commodity flows. Ana serves as a key voice within Risk and Compliance, translating regulatory developments, sanctions dynamics, and geopolitical shifts into structured assessments and actionable intelligence for clients.
Dimitris Ampatzidis
Dimitris is a Maritime Risk & Compliance Manager with deep shipping industry expertise in risk assessment, governance, and data analytics. He has led the launch of industry-standard risk products and developed comprehensive sanctions and compliance protocols. At Lloyd’s Register, he was the go-to expert for Port State Control (PSC) analytics, delivering training to shipping professionals and developing emissions reporting and sanctions frameworks. Previously, he helped build the RISK4SEA platform at SAFETY4SEA. He holds Master’s degrees in IT Project Management and Information Systems, and a Bachelor’s in Statistics and Insurance Science.
Yuan Li
Li Yuan is a Junior Risk & Compliance Analyst at Kpler, based in Singapore. She works on data-driven risk analysis, supporting the Risk & Compliance team through deeper exploration of maritime data and ongoing experimentation with predictive insights. She holds a Bachelor’s degree in Data Science and Analytics, with a second major in Economics, from the National University of Singapore. With a strong analytical foundation, she helps transform complex datasets and behavioural signals into practical risk insights that support compliance workflows and forward-looking risk assessment.
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