Sanctions evasion at sea: The expanding role of the grey fleet
Sanctions evasion at sea is accelerating — and the rise of the grey fleet is at the center of it. This whitepaper reveals how thousands of unregulated vessels are enabling sanctioned oil to reach global markets, exposing serious compliance, environmental, and reputational risks.
Inside the growing network behind sanctions evasion — and what it means for maritime compliance
The “grey fleet,” once a fringe phenomenon, now represents nearly 10% of the world’s tanker capacity and continues to grow. These aging, poorly regulated ships transport sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil through complex ownership structures, falsified identities, and deceptive AIS manipulation.
Drawing on exclusive Kpler data, this whitepaper maps the 2,800% surge in grey fleet activity since 2022, highlighting the tactics operators use — from dark STS transfers to flag-hopping — and the enforcement challenges regulators face in keeping up. It also explores the geopolitical drivers, from shifting sanctions policy to the Trump administration’s renewed pressure campaign.
Key takeaways
- Quantify the risk: See how the grey fleet expanded to 3,000 vessels and now accounts for up to 13% of global tanker capacity.
- Uncover hidden tactics: Learn how operators exploit AIS spoofing, false flags, and shadow registries to disguise sanctioned cargoes.
- Anticipate what’s next: Understand how evolving U.S. and EU enforcement, AI-driven monitoring, and predictive analytics will reshape maritime compliance in 2025.
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