Food inflation has taken hold across the world. In places like America and Europe, food prices were up by more than 10% y/y in December. Nonetheless, the situation seems to be improving. Wheat prices have eased considerably off the highs seen in the initial months following Russia's invasion. Food inflation in m/m terms is already showing signs of a slowdown. The grain deal, which came into effect last August, is clearly having an impact. Ukraine managed to ship 4.75 Mt in total seaborne wheat tonnage through the final five months of the year.
On October 30th the Russian Federation suspended their participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Instead of freezing the current backlog of laden vessels, Turkish and UN delegations have instead reacted swiftly by increasing inspections in the Marmara Sea.
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The Black Sea is one of the regions the early users of Kpler Grains & Oilseeds watch the most. Let's have a look at a few interesting moves identified by Madeleine Overgaard, Grains Analyst.
The war in Ukraine has quickly highlighted the fragility of grain markets. Prices have responded to the upside as a result. While loading disruptions have yet to surface, strict sanctions, a Russian agreement with China and disappointing Ukrainian yields are all likely to weigh on Black Sea loadings as the harvest season approaches in Q3. Med purchasers are poised to feel the biggest impacts, albeit the United States could help to fill the supply gap.
