Since the invasion, there has been an increase in the number of vessels operating in the Black Sea with lost AIS signals for one day or more, but there is no indication yet that this increase is linked to suspicious behaviour including covert ship-to-ship (STS) activity.
The Russian war in Ukraine is in its seventh day and financial sanctions on Russian individuals and banks are set to cripple the financial sector. Energy exports have not been the target of sanctions and even though the effect has made buyers and shippers wary, trade volumes have been unmoved so far as current loadings would have traded and had vessels fixed before the invasion. But, with Urals hitting a new record discount to Brent, finding buyers over the coming weeks is set to become increasingly difficult.
While a full ban on Russian oil exports would undoubtedly have a severe impact on the Russian economy, it would also cause widespread disruption to the global oil market. Europe would be the worst affected, relying on both Russian crude and product to a large extent.
In this update Alex Booth, Kpler's Head of Research comments on the developments through the day in Ukraine and the potential market and geopolitical ramifications.
Overnight on Tuesday, the container Ship Ever Given ran aground in a southern part of the Suez Canal, a rare event in the history of the waterway. The potential for a rapid build-up of liquid and gas tankers in the region is marked with multiple laden vessels now indicating delays for Suez transit. As of Wednesday morning there were seven vessels carrying crude, 15 carrying refined products, five LNG vessels and two LPG carriers either sat waiting or approaching the canal. While attempts to clear the ship from the canal continue, this queue will continue to build. A salvage squad from the Netherlands will attempt to dislodge the ship beginning Thursday.
The release of a new grade of oil influences supply and demand. Market players and financial players need to plana head of market movements to minimise potential negative impact and maximise profit. In these circumstances there is always a layer of uncertainty with regards to how these events can unfold. Here we will look at Iraq's Basrah Medium as an example and what happened in similar past events and how players can prepare ahead.