Grains fundamentals: Middle East conflict disrupts grain markets
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Synopsis
Ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting grain and fertiliser trade, with a Strait of Hormuz blockade creating supply uncertainty for key agricultural producers including Brazil, the US, India, and China. In this webinar, Kpler analysts examine how rising fertiliser costs are affecting production, what US-China soybean trade signals for 2026 corn and soybean acreage, and how adverse weather across Brazil and Argentina is weighing on harvests. With the 2026/27 winter wheat crop beginning to emerge from dormancy across the Northern Hemisphere, this session offers a timely look at the forces shaping global grain markets.
What you'll learn
- The impact of the Middle East conflict on fertiliser trade and crops that might be affected
- What swing in US corn and soybean acreage can currently be expected in 2026
- How US soybean sales to China are performing and whether the US will see a stronger soybean export campaign next year
- The impact that Brazil’s soybean harvest pace has had on export volume and planting of the safrinha corn crop
- If recent weather conditions have helped to support Argentine corn and soybean crop development
- Key market drivers for the upcoming month
Meet the speakers
Matthew Darragh
Matt joined Kpler’s Insight Team in January 2025 as a Grains & Oilseeds Analyst, based in London. Prior to Kpler, Matt was a Cereals & Oilseeds Analyst at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), conducting both domestic (UK) and global analysis of the respective grains and oilseeds markets. Before becoming an analyst at AHDB, Matt acquired a Masters of Science in Agricultural Economics at the University of Reading. At Kpler, Matt contributes to the Insight reports and conducts supply and demand analysis to support on the grain balance sheets.
Ishan Bhanu
Ishan joined Kpler’s dry bulk and Insights teams in October 2023. Based in Dubai, he has over 12 years of experience with global grains markets research and trading. Ishan is building an understanding of agricultural markets and trade within Kpler, to add to and support its dry bulk data offering. He is also building analytical tools and balance sheets for major ags like wheat, corn, soybeans and barley, with focus on developing all the support required for trade decision-making by Kpler clients. Ishan has worked as Head of Research at Invivo and as Associate Trader at Olam International. He founded Integrated Research Dubai and was a consultant for major trading houses across the globe, before joining Kpler.
