February 28, 2024

Kpler's Market Insight Forum 2024 take aways: Forecasting Refinery Margins and Market Dynamics

On Monday, February 26, 2024, Kpler's Market Insight Forum in London provided a platform for industry experts to delve into the intricate outlook for energy markets in 2024. Senior Manager Downstream Analysis, Andon Pavlov, took the stage to share invaluable insights alongside other market specialists from Kpler. The event's agenda covered a broad spectrum of topics, ranging from macroeconomic influences on energy markets to the nuanced dynamics of natural gas, LNG, crude oil, and refining sectors.

Forecasting Refinery Margins and Market Dynamics

Despite sluggish demand growth this year, refinery margins are poised to remain robust in the first half of 2024, driven by a combination of factors. Intense maintenance seasons and operational disruptions in the Atlantic Basin, compounded by supply disruptions in the Red Sea, are expected to sustain healthy margins. 

However, challenges are likely to loom in the second half, particularly for export-oriented, gasoline-heavy refiners facing increased competition from newly commissioned setups. Meanwhile, returning Chinese demand and restrained refinery runs will temper CPP exports. Despite recent capacity shut-ins in OECD Asia, robust import demand is anticipated to maintain regional market resilience compared to the West of Suez.

Refining Challenges and Opportunities

Pavlov's talk culminated in a discussion on oil products and refining. Attendees gained insights into the impact of new refinery capacity additions on product trade flows, challenges faced by European refiners in managing crude slates, and forecasts for gasoline supply ahead of the summer driving season.

Earlier this week, Kpler launched a new tool for refineries - Refineries Intelligence - designed to empower your strategy with real-time refinery data. Learn more about this new service.

Key Insights from Andon Pavlov's Talk

Among the key takeaways from Pavlov's session were the following:

  1. Refinery margins are poised to remain robust in the first half of the year, driven by operational constraints.
  2. The second half of the year presents challenges, particularly for export-oriented, gasoline-heavy refiners in the Atlantic Basin, as new capacity additions put pressure on existing setups.
  3. Timing is crucial in navigating the evolving landscape, especially amidst significant capacity additions in the Atlantic Basin.

To access the slides from Andon's session, visit the Kpler Market Insight Forum page on our website.

Did you know?

All of the data and insight from Andon's presentation came from the Kpler platform. Enabling commodity traders, producers and investors to reduce risk and maximise returns, to make better decisions, faster with real-time, unbiased expert research, AI driven analytics, and precise price forecasting.

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