US jet fuel demand rebounds into fall as refiners keep yields high

US jet/kero demand has moved past its immediate post-summer seasonal trough and is set for a modest uptick through late September and October. This is corroborated by rising daily air traveller throughput, which is trending slightly above 2024 levels.

Market & Trading Calls:

• US jet/kero demand is temporarily rebounding, with daily passenger throughput exceeding 2024 levels and demand expected to rise some 50 kbd y/y in Sep/Oct.
• Inventories remain elevated, though falling runs and improving demand may spur near term draws.
• USGC jet regrade has modest upside, after touching positive territory last week, in contrast to other global regions where diesel remains dominant on the back of tight fundamentals in Europe and Russian refinery outages.

US jet/kero demand has passed its post-summer nadir and is gearing up for a modest recovery in consumption over the next couple of weeks, in line with seasonality. This is reflected by rebounding daily air traveller throughput, which is trending marginally above 2024 levels (see chart). We estimate that US jet/kero demand will be exceeding one-year ago levels by some 50 kbd over the Sep/Oct period (or +3% y/y), which is attributable to improved long-haul aviation demand, and passenger load factors, which have fallen somewhat y/y (IATA). Tariff-related impacts on international air traffic remain limited. Canada may be a mild exception, but broader North American aviation flows have not seen significant disruption. These factors combined should keep US jet/kero demand on a moderate y/y growth trajectory in Q4-2025.

US: Daily air traveller throughput 7DMA (‘000 Passengers)

Source: TSA

From the supply side, US refiners continue to strongly favour jet output in relative terms, with yields hitting 11.6% in last week’s update (+0.4pp w/w), which constitutes one of the highest readings this year. Likewise, we see US jet production trending above the multi-year range in weekly EIA data. This supply strength has kept inventories persistently above the 5-year average throughout 2025. Looking closer, stocks are mainly inflated by PADD-5, while PADD-1 and PADD-3 are tighter. Up ahead, reduced crude throughput and incremental demand gains may tip stocks towards draws in the coming weeks. Net exports are not materially affecting the equation at present.

US: Jet fuel yields (%)

Source: EIA

US: Jet fuel inventories (Mb)

Source: EIA

This points to some modest upside potential for the USGC regrade, contrasting with other global key hubs, where fundamentals are more in favour of gasoil/diesel.

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