Dry Bulk Wrapped: Kpler 2025 forecast hits the mark across commodities

Coal: Contrarian calls vindicated

The coal market presented one of our most impressive forecasting achievements this year. Against prevailing market sentiment, we projected China's thermal coal imports would decline by approximately 70 million tonnes year-over-year as of December 2024. This bearish outlook has proven prescient as China's domestic supply improvements and demand moderation materialized precisely as we anticipated, thanks to our bottom up modelling approach for the world’s most important coal market.

Our foresight extended beyond volume forecasts to price dynamics. Our CIF ARA forecast accurately predicted the downward trend in CIF ARA FOB Newcastle prices from late 2024 throughout 2025. Moreover, we correctly identified that Russian coal's discount to the CIF ARA market would narrow in the second half of the year, a subtle but important market shift that caught many market participants off guard in Q2 2025, especially given the lack of transparency in the Russian coal trade.

Two comprehensive research papers, one outlining our rationale for the China coal market outlook in January and another detailing key themes to monitor in September, cemented our position as thought leaders in the space.

Iron Ore & Steel: Pre-empting the miners

The iron ore market has become a showcase for what best-in-class flows data and analyst modeling can achieve. The precision of our tracking now allows us to pre-empt company reporting, publishing accurate projections of major iron ore miners' production and shipping results ahead of official announcements. This isn't market speculation; its best cargo tracking combined with data science at its finest.

We now report quarterly production and shipment data for major iron ore miners as soon as each quarter ends, several weeks ahead of official results. The accuracy is staggering: our preliminary data generally deviates less than 2% from official results. For context, this level of precision transforms how the market prices iron ore forwards and how traders position themselves ahead of earnings seasons.

This year marked another milestone as we expanded coverage to smaller iron ore miners, achieving projections within 5% of official results. From tracking Rio Tinto's shipments during cyclone disruptions to monitoring the steady ramp-up of operations like Fenix Resources' Beebyn W-11 project, our comprehensive coverage has become indispensable for market participants seeking an edge.

Grains & Oilseeds: WASDE-level accuracy

The grain markets demand not just accuracy but consistency, and on both counts, we delivered. In April, we forecast that US soybean exports to China would reach historically low levels in the 2025/26 marketing year, a call that proved prescient as trade tensions and Brazilian competition intensified. Our Russian wheat production forecast of 86 million tonnes, published in April ahead of others who remained anchored to lower starting points, demonstrated our willingness to lead rather than follow market consensus.

Our monitoring of US corn export competitiveness during calendar year 2024/25 exemplifies the power of continuous market surveillance. By tracking basis levels, freight dynamics, and competitive positioning in real-time, we accurately predicted US corn ending stocks ahead of the monthly WASDE report. The statistics speak for themselves: we forecast US corn ending stocks within 3% for six of the last eight monthly WASDE reports of the crop year. Even more impressively, we correctly predicted the direction of change per WASDE report for seven of the remaining eight months.

At the start of 2025, our forecast for US soybean exports came within 1% of the official result for the 2024/25 crop year. Our US wheat export forecast achieved identical 1% accuracy. These aren't approximations, they're near-perfect reads on complex, multi-billion bushel markets.

During the Northern Hemisphere wheat harvest, we expressed that seasonal harvest pressure would be delayed following a lag in Black Sea supply, a nuanced call that proved crucial for timing grain chartering activity. Following reduced US soybean exports to China, we forecast in April that US biofuel policy decisions would lead to a higher CBOT soybean oil share, connecting dots between trade policy, agricultural policy, and futures markets that many analysts missed.

Metals: First movers on critical supply disruptions

The development and improvement of our copper and copper concentrates data has generated significant insights into one of the world's most closely watched metals markets. Our granular tracking of Indonesian operations proved particularly valuable as supply disruptions rippled through global smelting capacity.

When Freeport declared force majeure at Grasberg in September following a major incident, Kpler data gave early indication that the declaration was imminent, a signal that allowed our clients to position ahead of the market. We continue to provide forward-looking analysis on Indonesian copper mining operations, with comprehensive coverage that extends from mine-mouth to smelter intake.

Perhaps most notably, we identified the first cargo departing Cobre Panama since the mine's forced closure in November 2023. In June 2025, when the bulk carrier Lipsi departed from Punto Rincon carrying concentrate bound for Aurubis, our tracking was first to market, a scoop that underscored the value of comprehensive vessel monitoring and sophisticated cargo identification. This wasn't merely observing vessel movements; it was understanding their market significance in a concentrate-starved global smelting industry.

Freight: Reading the tea leaves on rate differentials

Our freight market coverage in 2025 demonstrated that understanding commodity fundamentals translates directly into superior freight forecasting. We correctly identified the potential for relative weakness in the Pacific market versus the Atlantic due to lower seaborne coal trade, a structural call that manifested throughout the year.

The numbers validate our analysis: the Panamax Atlantic round-voyage rate averaged a premium of close to $900 per day to the Pacific equivalent year-to-date, a dramatic reversal from the $977 per day discount observed over the same period in 2024. The Supramax Atlantic premium expanded dramatically, reaching $3,615 per day versus $2,199 per day in the prior year.

Despite expectations that Brazilian corn and soybean exports would remain elevated for longer, we correctly identified that grain spot voyage rates from Brazil to China would underperform year-ago levels in the third quarter. This call required synthesizing multiple factors: reduced port congestion, demand weakness elsewhere, and lower bunker prices, all of which materialized precisely as our modeling suggested.

Since June 2025, we've published comprehensive reports covering Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize markets, building on our commodity market coverage to deliver a truly forward-looking view on freight dynamics. 

The Kpler Difference

What distinguishes Kpler's dry bulk coverage isn't just forecasting accuracy, though our track record speaks for itself. It's the integration of proprietary vessel tracking, sophisticated flows modeling, on-the-ground intelligence, and analytical expertise that transforms data into actionable intelligence. From monitoring port congestion in Western Australia to tracking the discharge of sanctioned concentrate cargoes, our coverage captures details that others miss while maintaining the strategic perspective that markets demand.

As we close out 2025, the dry bulk team stands ready to maintain this tradition of analytical excellence into 2026. The currents are always shifting, but with Kpler's dry bulk data intelligence, you'll always know where they're headed.