As the dust settles on November crude exports, the impact of winter storms appears to have halted a three-month consecutive streak of record monthly exports. But there is one record achieved in November – that of a high watermark for daily crude exports. On 17 November, after a lone 693 kb loading on the previous day from Houston, some 12.45 Mb were loaded across five ports – the highest volume since the US crude export ban was lifted in late 2015.
Crude ton-miles began the year trending below the five-year average, but since VLCC exports began to rise in June, growth has been rapid. While the order of the major VLCC routes has been consistent compared with previous years, there have been upheavals in the Suezmax and Aframax markets following the Russian war in Ukraine. Crude tanker demand is on course to finish the year on a high, but the prospects for next year are less rosy.
Oil markets have rallied last week despite a yet still hawkish tone from Jerome Powell, the FED governor. Rumours around China potentially lifting its sticky zero-covid policy have helped propel front-month prices for Brent by 6% in four days to just under $99/bbl. However, markets could be jumping the gun too early. Chinese authorities have tempered some hope about a turnaround in the country’s zero-covid policy.
Kpler launches a crude supply and demand assessment tool to help crude market professionals and downstream consumers better navigate the turbulent and uncertain global crude markets.
German refiners have begun phasing out Russian-origin imports in advance of EU-27 sanctions on Russian crude, resulting in a reshuffling of crude and condensate flows and a rise in seaborne imports into the country.
Amidst the sanctions omposed to Russia by the United States and Western allies, increased attention has been placed on Russian crude flows, especially on the reshuffling of their voyages and potential diversions or distressed cargoes. At Kpler, the market data analyst team uses a combination of proprietary data, tracking algorithms, market information, port reports and a robust methodology to track these evolving flows.
Kpler obtains the exclusive right to combine IIR Energy’s refinery data with its own flows and inventories data, to create new exclusive products.
Kuwait's Al-Zour Refinery has started operations at one of its CDUs a few days ago. The 615 kbd refinery is one of the largest globally, representing the most significant addition to global refining capacity in years and the largest addition until Nigeria’s Dangote plant eventually starts up later this decade.
Since the invasion, there has been an increase in the number of vessels operating in the Black Sea with lost AIS signals for one day or more, but there is no indication yet that this increase is linked to suspicious behaviour including covert ship-to-ship (STS) activity.