Amidst the sanctions omposed to Russia by the United States and Western allies, increased attention has been placed on Russian crude flows, especially on the reshuffling of their voyages and potential diversions or distressed cargoes. At Kpler, the market data analyst team uses a combination of proprietary data, tracking algorithms, market information, port reports and a robust methodology to track these evolving flows.
Through this partnership, Kpler obtains the exclusive right to combine IIR Energy’s refinery data with its own flows and inventories data, to create a new benchmark for crude and refined product market analysis.
Kuwait's Al-Zour Refinery has started operations at one of its CDUs a few days ago. The 615 kbd refinery is one of the largest globally, representing the most significant addition to global refining capacity in years and the largest addition until Nigeria’s Dangote plant eventually starts up later this decade.
Since the invasion, there has been an increase in the number of vessels operating in the Black Sea with lost AIS signals for one day or more, but there is no indication yet that this increase is linked to suspicious behaviour including covert ship-to-ship (STS) activity.
As oil prices soar to new multi-year highs, US consumers are having to deal with rising gasoline prices along with widespread inflation elsewhere. While the US administration appears unwilling to stimulate and incentivize domestic oil production, comparatively cheap natural gas is giving refiners one less cause for concern.
The Russian war in Ukraine is in its seventh day and financial sanctions on Russian individuals and banks are set to cripple the financial sector. Energy exports have not been the target of sanctions and even though the effect has made buyers and shippers wary, trade volumes have been unmoved so far as current loadings would have traded and had vessels fixed before the invasion. But, with Urals hitting a new record discount to Brent, finding buyers over the coming weeks is set to become increasingly difficult.
Violent clashes between protesters, police and the army broke out in Kazakhstan after the government lifted its price cap on LPG, which is widely used as a motor fuel in the country.
While a full ban on Russian oil exports would undoubtedly have a severe impact on the Russian economy, it would also cause widespread disruption to the global oil market. Europe would be the worst affected, relying on both Russian crude and product to a large extent.
In this update Alex Booth, Kpler's Head of Research comments on the developments through the day in Ukraine and the potential market and geopolitical ramifications.